Drivers of Return Plans Among Ukrainian War Refugees in Czechia: Challenging Common Assumptions and Refining the Theory

Abstract

This article examines return plans of forcibly displaced persons from Ukraine in Czechia, which has one of the highest relative shares of Ukrainian refugees in population. It draws on data from two rounds of cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2022 (N = 1037) and 2023 (N = 350), including a panel subsample (N = 116). Using exploratory network analysis and structural equation modelling informed by the theory of planned behaviour, the study captures the complexity of drivers and mechanisms underlying refugees' decision-making. Empirically, it moves beyond the predominantly descriptive literature on Ukrainian refugees' return plans. Theoretically, it advances understanding of how (forced) migration aspirations are formed. Findings challenge the assumption that return plans decline naturally with time and integration. Instead, shifts in perceived control over return drive individual-level changes over time, while social norms, particularly family pressures, strongly influence cross-sectional variations. These psychosocial drivers and return plans are shaped more by attachment to Ukraine (emotional, social, identity-related and material) than by integration levels or hardships in Czechia, including policy restrictions on refugees' well-being. Our findings support the need for balanced return policies that acknowledge social ties, enhance perceptions of return feasibility and offer flexible pathways to prevent return from being seen as irreversible.